This market resolves YES if, at any point before 2030, a federal moratorium on most forms of state level AI regulation--necessarily including restrictions against regulation targeted on liability and catastrophic risk mitigation--is in place. It would also count if such a restriction is merely a condition for more than $10B in federal funding for a majority of states, as estimated by a credible source I will seek out if necessary.

In 2025, a proposed moratorium on most kinds of state level AI regulation was proposed and defeated. Amendments to the proposal included exceptions for child safety, deepfakes, and publicity rights, and another amendment changed the proposal from blanket preemption to being a condition for billions of dollars of federal funding. My understanding and intention is that this market would have resolved YES if the final version of that proposal had gone into effect.