
Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026
2
400Ṁ522026
53%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if there is a verified failure (valued >$2M) of a semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to a Tier-1 AI country (US, EU, Japan, South Korea), whether it be a delay, the chips being outright stolen or so on. Resolution based on shipping company reports, customs data, or credible news sources.
References:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
What will be US tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors on July 1st, 2025?
US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?
53% chance
US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026
52% chance
Will Extropic AI ship functional chips to customers by December 31st 2025?
10% chance
[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
92% chance
Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?
11% chance
Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?
15% chance
Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?
19% chance
A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027
8% chance
In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?
-