When will things die? Odd year=100%, even=0%
3
1.2kṀ402030
50%
The independent polity of Taiwan (ie no foreign hostile troops)
50%
Donald Trump's life
50%
Elon's CEOship of Tesla
50%
Japan's got an emperor or empress who is in residence in Tokyo
53%
America's president is older than China's top leader
50%
The Beatles (Paul or Ringo is still alive)
50%
USS Gerald Ford (aircraft carrier, is seaworthy and in mil service)
50%
The moon's long streak of having no humans on it
50%
Martian soil's virginity to a living human's foot
50%
The 9****** series of CA passenger license plates
50%
North Korea's de facto physical / political independence
50%
Putin's life
If the item dies or ceases to be or to be itself, we consult the year for the imprecise endpoint. If the year is odd, market resolves to 100%. If even, resolves to 0.
Deadline will extend
Each market is separate.
Clarifications will come if you ask
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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