Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Michael D. Higgins remains President of Ireland and completes his full term, which is scheduled to conclude on November 10, 2025.

The market will resolve to "No" if Michael D. Higgins does not complete his term. This includes, but is not limited to, scenarios where he dies, resigns, or is removed from office before November 10, 2025.

Official announcements from Áras an Uachtaráin (the Office of the President of Ireland) or major Irish news outlets will serve as primary sources for resolution.

Background

Michael D. Higgins is the ninth and current President of Ireland, serving his second and final seven-year term. His current term is due to end on November 10, 2025.

Catherine Connolly was elected as the 10th President of Ireland on October 24, 2025, and is scheduled to be inaugurated on November 11, 2025, the day when President Higgins's term officially ends.

President Higgins was recently admitted to St James's Hospital for treatment of a localized infection. As of October 27, 2025, his condition has shown significant improvement, and he is reported to be in good spirits, remaining in hospital to continue a course of antibiotics. He also experienced a mild stroke in February 2024, from which he fully recovered.

In the event of a premature vacancy in the presidency due to death, resignation, removal, or permanent incapacity, a Presidential Commission, comprising the Chief Justice, the Ceann Comhairle of Dáil Éireann, and the Cathaoirleach of Seanad Éireann, assumes the President's duties until a new election is held within sixty days.