Background

Vladimir Putin has been the dominant political figure in Russia since 1999, serving as either President or Prime Minister. Constitutional amendments passed in 2020 reset his term count, allowing him to potentially remain president until 2036. His current term ends in 2030 and he would be allowed to run for additional term (2030-2036). Of course the constitution can be reamended.

Putin won the March 2024 presidential election with a reported 87% of the vote, securing his position until at least 2030, although the elections were not considered free and fair. He will be 77 years old at the end of this term and 83 by 2036.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the year in which Vladimir Putin permanently ceases to be the president of Russia, whether through:

• Regular elections or term limits

• Forced removal (revolution, coup, etc.)

• Resignation

• Death or incapacitation

• Any other reason that permanently ends his presidency

The market will also resolve if the Russian Federation ceases to exist as a sovereign state.

For resolution purposes:

• If Putin temporarily transfers power but later returns to the presidency, the market will not resolve until his final departure.

• If Putin remains de facto ruler of Russia while holding a different official title (similar to his 2008-2012 arrangement as Prime Minister), the market will not resolve until he no longer effectively controls the Russian government.

• If Putin's presidency ends on December 31 of a given year, the market resolves to that year, not the following year.

• The market resolves when Putin dies even if he is made "eternal leader" in North Korean style.