Will "Compact Proofs of Model Performance via Mecha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
1
1kṀ142026
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Compact Proofs of Model Performance via Mechanistic Interpretability is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will "The Leopold Model: Analysis and Reactions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Frontier Models are Capable of In-context Sch..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Toward A Mathematical Framework for Computati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
46% chance
Will "o1: A Technical Primer" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "Mechanistically Eliciting Latent Behaviors in..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Ablations for “Frontier Models are Capable of..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will "Stanislav Petrov Quarterly Performance Review" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
16% chance
Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Yudkowsky" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
50% chance
Will "Language Models Model Us" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Arithmetic is an underrated world-modeling te..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
12% chance