First country to conduct offensive nuclear strike (before 2035)?
7
1.2kṀ16152034
18%
Pakistan
18%
Russia
12%
Iran
9%
North Korea
8%
United States
7%
Israel
7%
China
7%
India
6%
5%
Saudi Arabia
1.9%
France
1.3%
United Kingdom
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to the first country that conducts an offensive nuclear strike after market creation and before January 1, 2035.
Exclusions: Nuclear tests and the use of radiological dispersal devices (commonly known as "dirty bombs") are excluded from this definition and will not trigger resolution.
No Occurrence: If no offensive nuclear strike occurs before the specified date, the market will resolve as N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?
Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation in 2025?
4% chance
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)
7% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
12% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
12% chance
What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
Israel deploys nuclear weapons in 2025?
3% chance
Which country will be the first to use a nuclear weapon in anger (post WW2)?
Will a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035?
17% chance
Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2025?