By when will the Boom Overture make its first supersonic passenger-carrying flight?
7
180Ṁ228
2041
63%
Boom Overture will not make a supersonic passenger-carrying flight
50%
After end of 2040
45%
By end of 2035
45%
By end of 2036
45%
By end of 2037
45%
By end of 2038
45%
By end of 2039
45%
By end of 2040
41%
By end of 2034
37%
By end of 2033
34%
By end of 2032
28%
By end of 2031
23%
By end of 2030
20%
By end of 2029
13%
By end of 2028
6%
By end of 2027
4%
By end of 2026
3%
By end of 2025

Resolves based on the date of the first reported supersonic passenger-carrying flight of the Boom Overture aircraft.

For a given year of resolution, all markets up to the year before will resolve "NO", then all markets for that year and later will resolve "yes". So for example, if the Overture makes its first passenger-carrying flight on 2030-06-01, then "By end of 2025":"By end of 2029" will resolve "NO", and "By end of 2030":"By end of 2040" will resolve "YES".

If the flight was conducted at the end of one year but the press release made at the start of the next, I will resolve based on the datetime of the flight, not the press release.

"Passenger-carrying" is a little vague, but I'll take this to be carrying non-engineering and non-pilot passengers who do not work for Boom, as on a maiden flight. They do not need to have paid for that ticket to be classified as "passengers". Supersonic test flights with onboard pilots and engineering, while awesome, do not count as passenger-carrying.

I have an option for "Boom Overture will not make a supersonic passenger-carrying flight" to cover the risk of Boom going bust or pivoting away from the Overture.

If another company buys Boom, but development of a supersonic passenger aircraft based on the Overture design outline continues, I will consider that to still be the Overture.

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