Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's total carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The primary source for this data will be the annual reports published by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). If the NBS data is unavailable or insufficient, alternative reputable sources such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) or the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) will be used. The comparison will be based on total CO₂ emissions figures for the years 2025 and 2026.

Background

China has committed to peaking its CO₂ emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Recent trends indicate a potential earlier peak. In the first quarter of 2025, China's CO₂ emissions declined by 1.6% year-on-year, attributed to significant increases in wind, solar, and nuclear power generation (carbonbrief.org). Additionally, a survey conducted by CREA in late 2024 found that 44% of experts believe China's CO₂ emissions have already peaked or will peak by 2025 (theguardian.com).

Considerations

While there is optimism about China's emissions peaking earlier than anticipated, challenges remain. The country continues to approve new coal-fired power plants, which could offset gains from renewable energy (theguardian.com). Additionally, economic factors, such as industrial activity and energy demand, will influence annual emissions. Traders should monitor official emissions data releases and policy developments to inform their positions.