Resolved as N/A. The source provided by the creator doesn't match up with the creator's statement (it lists Avatar: The Way of Water at $400,000,000, while The Force Awakens is higher at $$533,200,000 and was out long before this market), there doesn't seem to be a clear way to resolve it.

@mods This is an extremely confusing question, and the creator deleted their account. The Numbers lists The Force Awakens as already being above $500 million. Wikipedia agrees on The Force Awakens' page ("On a budget of $533 million, it is the 3rd most expensive film ever made."), but disagrees on the List of most expensive films page (where its budget is listed as $447 million---it seems like the discrepancy has something to do with a tax credit). Probably should just NA the question.

@polymathematic I would +1 to N/A-ing the question—I refrained from betting because it seemed like this was hard to solve. But technically I have a tiny loss from earlier on this market (maybe selling when it became clear this wasn’t easy to fix) so some other mod should make that call

@mods "by 2026" meaning by jan 1, 2026?