(AI-generated description, edited by me)

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by July 4, 2026, the United States has achieved the pilot nuclear reactor buildout goals set forth in President Trump's "REFORMING NUCLEAR REACTOR TESTING AT THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY", signed on May 23, 2025. Specifically,

• Pilot Reactors: At least three pilot reactors achieving criticality (i.e., becoming operational) by July 4, 2026. (whitehouse.gov)

Verification will be based on official reports from the DOE, NRC, and other relevant federal agencies. If all these conditions are met by the specified date, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Background

On May 23, 2025, President Trump signed four executive orders aimed at revitalizing the U.S. nuclear industry. These orders set ambitious targets, including quadrupling domestic nuclear power production by 2050 and expediting the development and deployment of advanced nuclear reactors. The initiatives also focus on streamlining regulatory processes and enhancing the domestic nuclear fuel supply chain. (world-nuclear-news.org)

Considerations

• Feasibility: The timeline for achieving criticality in pilot reactors by July 4, 2026, is notably aggressive, given the typical duration of reactor development and regulatory approval processes.

• Regulatory Challenges: Reforming the NRC's regulatory framework within the stipulated 18-month period may face bureaucratic and legal hurdles.

• Supply Chain Constraints: Expanding domestic uranium conversion and enrichment capabilities requires significant investment and time, potentially impacting the ability to meet the set goals.