Background
The RSA‑2048 challenge number is a 617‑digit (2048‑bit) semiprime released by RSA Laboratories as a public benchmark for integer‑factorisation research. Demonstrating its factorisation with a general‑purpose quantum computer—one capable of running Shor’s algorithm (or an equivalent quantum‑factoring routine) at scale—would effectively break today’s RSA‑based public‑key cryptography.
Resolution Criteria
Evidence required – A peer‑reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal must show that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA‑2048 challenge number.
Classical assistance – Limited classical pre‑ or post‑processing (e.g., compiling the circuit, verifying the output) is allowed, but the actual factorization step must be done by quantum hardware.
Timing - The peer-reviewed paper’s publication date occurs before Jan 1, 2030 for the market to resolve YES.
=============================
The RSA-2048 challenge number can be found on Wikipedia:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers
25195908475657893494027183240048398571429282126204032027777137836043662020707595556264018525880784406918290641249515082189298559149176184502808489120072844992687392807287776735971418347270261896375014971824691165077613379859090009733045974880842840179742910064245869181795118746121515172654632282216869987549182422433637259085141865462043576798423387184774447920739934236584823982428119816381501067481045166037730605620161967625613384414360833904414953443221901146575444541784240209246165157233507787077498171257724679629263866373289912154831438167899885040445364023527381951378636564391212010397122822120720357
1,000@TimothyJohnson5c16 Yes, for a variety of reasons. Theres been algorithmic improvements on fast approximations for NP class problems, and thats all it takes. Along with this, theres been new mathematical tools derived in order to solve those problems. Looking at the trend, and considering a fast approximation of an NP problem suggests there exists a fast approximation for all NP problems, there is therefore every likelihood the same is true for modular exponentiation, or more specifically, RSA. I expect researchers to find one fast approximate algorithm for each problem in NP every 1.5 to 2 years, whether that Co-NP or NP-Complete I don't know, but as RSA relies on the apparent most important of them, I see no reason why that isn't already targeted using the newer methods.