Resolution criteria
The market resolves YES if the shooter who killed at least two people and wounded eight others at Brown University on December 13, 2025 is apprehended by law enforcement before December 31, 2025. Resolution will be based on official statements from Providence Police, the FBI, or Brown University confirming the suspect's arrest or capture. The market resolves NO if the suspect remains at large through the end of 2025.
Background
A shooter dressed in black killed at least two people and wounded eight others at Brown University on Saturday during final exams on the Ivy League campus. The shooting occurred in the Barus & Holley building, a seven-story complex that houses the School of Engineering and the physics department. The suspect is described as a man dressed in black who left the scene on foot, and no weapons have been recovered. An "all hands on deck" manhunt is underway involving local police and university police, FBI and other agencies, with investigators combing through video footage from throughout the area.
Considerations
Brown is an open campus in a residential neighborhood and is not a "walled off, gated campus in any way," which may affect the difficulty of locating the suspect. Many surveillance cameras are around on the college campus, which could aid in identification and apprehension.
Update 2025-12-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the shooter dies before being apprehended, the market will resolve NO, as the suspect would not have been in custody at any point.
Update 2025-12-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will wait a couple more days for additional confirmation from police before resolving, as the dead individual is currently still classified as a suspect rather than confirmed as the shooter.
1,000@traders Update: Apparently the current suspect who was found dead in the NH warehouse is named Claudio Manuel Nueves Valente. He was a former Brown University physics student and a portuguese national, could connect him to both the Brown shootings and the MIT professor shooting.
@Bayesian I want to wait for a couple more days just for more confirmation from the police, as of right now the dead individual is still classified as a suspect.
@ChadCotty why would there be a misinterpretation? On the first day I responded to this exact scenario asked by @ArtimisFowl , and it was added by the Manifold AI to the Considerations section.
@105du There is nothing wrong with the criteria, it was more just that the search for the suspect was over and it seemed some people were reacting to the news without seeing that clarification.
am i missing something? why is this at 5%? cnn claims police think he's in one of the storage lockers https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/brown-university-shooting-suspect-12-18-25
@jla I can't find anything other than ppl saying it on twitter lol but polymarket is up 45% (to 95%) that shooter won't be in custody by the end of the year so they seem sure it's real
@Bayesian CNN just reported that the suspect was found dead according to the police https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/brown-university-shooting-suspect-12-18-25?post-id=cmjc80jfj000i3b6q5ceec4qp
@Bayesian gotcha, thanks. my fault for not being on twitter & not thinking of being dead as a possibility 🤦♂️
Providence police raiding a facility in salem NH https://www.providencejournal.com/live-story/news/crime/2025/12/18/brown-university-shooting-updates-suspect-victims/87817127007/
Date version of this question: https://manifold.markets/Balasar/when-will-the-brown-shooter-be-appr?r=QmFsYXNhcg
https://manifold.markets/nonnihil/brown-university-shooting-facts arbitrage available here.
@ArtimisFowl would resolve no, as the suspect would not have been in custody (detained) at any point