Resolves "YES" if the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season meets a majority of the following criteria:
(1) Total economic damage estimate of at least $295 billion
(2) At least 17 named storms
(3) At least 10 hurricanes
(4) At least 6 major hurricanes
(5) At least 2 category 5 hurricanes
(6) At least 3,000 estimated deaths
(7) At least 224 units of Accumulated Cyclone Energy
Only storms occurring during hurricane season (June 1 - November 30) will count towards the total. Resolution may take into account reporting/estimates that become public after November 30 if necessary, as long as the reporting is of events occurring during hurricane season.
2017 was the costliest hurricane season on record thus far. In 2025, NOAA forecasts an "above normal" hurricane season (https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season).
Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the total economic damage estimate, priority will be given to official sources (NCEI, NWS, NOAA), followed by credible nonprofits or insurer/reinsurer estimates.
If the damage estimate is the deciding factor for the market's outcome and plausible estimates are ambiguous around the $295 billion threshold, the market may resolve to a percentage.
The estimated deaths criterion includes all human deaths in any geographic location resulting from named storms during the 2025 hurricane season. Deaths from long-term indirect health impacts are excluded.
1,0001) Total economic damage estimate of at least $295 billion
What source will you use? Estimates tend to be all over the place.
(2) At least 17 named storms
The current estimate is just under 16
https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/how-many-named-storms-will-there-be?r=TWFjaGlOaQ
(3) At least 10 hurricanes
The current estimate is under 6-7
https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/how-many-hurricanes-will-there-be-i?r=TWFjaGlOaQ
(4) At least 6 major hurricanes
The current estimate is 3-4
https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/how-many-major-hurricanes-will-ther?r=TWFjaGlOaQ
(5) At least 2 category 5 hurricanes
61% chance of at least one
https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-a-category-5-hurricane-form-du?r=TWFjaGlOaQ
Two category 5 hurricanes in one season has happened 6-8 times since the 1850s (not sure exactly how many). Last two times were in 2007 and 2017 (edited).
(6) At least 3,000 estimated deaths
Where? All of the Atlantic basin? Just the US? The problem coming up with an estimate is there’s huge variance. Claude says:
The direct average appears to be in the range of 50-200 deaths per year in the U.S. from Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms, but this is highly variable and the long-term indirect health impacts are much larger according to recent research.
(7) At least 224 units of Accumulated Cyclone Energy
The NHC has predicted an above-average season which should put it in the vicinity of 155 ACE. Over 224 would be considered extremely active.
@MachiNi If i understand correctly, at least four of those conditions must be met for the market to resolve YES. I find this vanishingly unlikely given base rates combined with the current forecasts. We could be in for a huge surprise, but it would be really huge.
@MachiNi I have not predetermined a single authoritative source for the damage estimate. I will prioritize estimates from official sources like NCEI, NWS, NOAA when available, otherwise looking to credible nonprofits or insurer/reinsurers. If the market comes down to a decisive damage estimate and the range of plausible estimates straddles the $295bn mark and there is no clear way to choose between sources I may resolve to a percentage.
Deaths include all estimated human deaths in any geographic location which result from named storms and occur during the 2025 hurricane season (e.g. deaths from long-term indirect health impacts would not be included)
You are correct that at least four conditions must be met for the market to resolve yes. The probability would indeed be vanishingly unlikely if the outcome of each criterion were independent from the others, but of course they are highly correlated with one another. Another way to think of the base rate is that the 2017 season featured all 7 of these criteria as a YES, and no other season had 4 or more.