Who will do an apparent Nazi salute during Trump's second term? (add answers)
87
5.6kαΉ€19k
2029
65%
Kanye West
60%
Enrique Tarrio
51%
Another religious figure in addition to Calvin Robinson
50%
Calvin Robinson
30%
Alex Jones
27%
Elon Musk (again)
25%
Tommy Robinson
24%
Jacob Chansley
22%
Any Democratic Senator, Governor, or former Presidential or Vice Presidential nominee
16%
Jake Paul
15%
Joe Exotic
15%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
14%
Viktor Orban
14%
Tucker Carlson
13%
Donald Trump
11%
Liz Truss
11%
Guillaume Verdon
10%
Trey Parker
10%
Pete Hegseth
10%
Mel Gibson

Only salutes on or after January 21st 2025 count. I will resolve according to my judgment, based on credible video or photo/eyewitness evidence. Think of a "clear and convincing" but not necessarily "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard of evidence. For reference, Elon Musk's Nazi salute on January 20th would have counted and not been close.

Salutes before inauguration day 2029 will count even if Donald Trump is no longer acting as president.

  • Update 2025-21-01 (PST): - The scope is global; salutes from any country are considered. (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications on Resolution Criteria:

    • Affirmative intent not required: Confirmation of affirmative intent to praise Hitler is not necessary.

    • Trolling counts: Performing the gesture as an effort to troll will count.

    • Repeated gestures at rallies: Performing the gesture repeatedly at political rallies will count despite denials.

    • Media controversy with evidence: If there is widespread controversy in the media about whether somebody was doing a Nazi salute along with video or other substantial evidence, it will count.

    • Non-genuine gestures do not count: Raising the right arm at a medical exam or hailing a taxi does not count.

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bought αΉ€75 NO

@MalachiteEagle Actors are more aware about how their physical actions look from the perspective of a bystander/camera so are a lot less likely to accidentally do a salute.

bought αΉ€25 NO

@Shai Does this apply at a lesser extent to women? Honestly IDK. But women are definitely less likely to 'troll'.

@MalachiteEagle This one cracked me up

The total number of Nazi salutes implied by this market remains quite distressing

bought αΉ€50 NO

@AbuElBanat Should have been a tell that the market was grossly inaccurate :)

Is Liv Boeree some kind of manifold inside joke? Do you add her on random markets? Or is there a case?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen note that the market is for "apparent nazi salute"

@MalachiteEagle oh well, after Rowling and Sorbo, I should not be shocked, but I guess I am

@JussiVilleHeiskanen could see liz truss doing it as an attempt to revive her political career

@JussiVilleHeiskanen although curiously liv boeree doesn't like it when it's Bannon

Curious discrepancy

@JussiVilleHeiskanen maybe nazi salute perception is a function of perceived ideological alignment

@JussiVilleHeiskanen maybe Rowling would do it as a free speech statement 🀷

@MalachiteEagle maybe it is a loyalty to friends issue rgrding Musk

@JussiVilleHeiskanen dunno, haven't seen Liv boeree speak much online, but she seems much more on the ball than others. Like not fallen in to the weird psychedelics mind warping that e.g. musk and fridman appear to have fallen into

@JussiVilleHeiskanen a look at her twitter gives an impression of total online addiction but still coherent 🀣

bought αΉ€10 NO

@MalachiteEagle Based Liv Boeree.

bought αΉ€25 NO

@MalachiteEagle Or maybe she just believes that Elon's gesture was innocent and Bannon's was intentional?

@Shai Does that make her more or less likely to do a nazi salute?

@MalachiteEagle Well she's pretty clearly saying that intentionally doing a nazi salute is abhorrent.

@Shai unless that person happens to be elon musk 🀣

@MalachiteEagle Even on this website the majority of people do not think Elon's salute was intentional. https://manifold.markets/Alfie/did-elon-musk-intentionally-do-a-na

@Shai seems plausible. Guess we'll see who the next one is

@MalachiteEagle I made my predictions (almost 4k mana in various NO positions).

@Shai thanks for the mana!

@MalachiteEagle You'll have to bet again to earn mana at my expense.

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