Relevant markets:

https://manifold.markets/Alana/will-i-have-a-research-position-at-814174e80a45?r=QWxhbmE

Will I have a research position at Anthropic (Research Engineer included) by the end of 2025?

16% chance. MIRI: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Alana/will-i-have-a-research-position-at)Conjecture: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Alana/will-i-have-a-research-position-at-525b55a470d4) Alignment research: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Alana/will-i-consider-myself-a-fulltime-a)

https://manifold.markets/Alana/will-i-have-a-research-position-at-525b55a470d4

Alana: will I work at MIRI…

Everyone: “no. Immediately no.”

@AlanaXiang yeah, they're largely not hiring right now, though 2 years gives a little time for that to change

@AlanaXiang yeah not much of a comment on you

@AlanaXiang So on the bright side this market might actually given you information? Like 30% would be the kind of probability I would put on this if you were already interning there (are you?).

@TassiloNeubauer That’s the point of these markets 🙂

I’m not interning there. I’m working at ARC right now (evals).