The FDA declared an Ozempic shortage in early 2022. This allowed low-cost "compounding pharmacies" to avoid patents, producing and selling compounded versions of Ozempic to the benefit of dircet-to-consumer online pharmacies like Hims & Hers.
In October 2024, the FDA changed the Ozempic designation to "available," but the shortage will only end when it is designated as "resolved." However, Ozempic availability is a hotly contested political issue, and the FDA could go back and forth on the designation, especially with RFK in the picture and now this question of Greenland (Ozempic manufacturer Novo Nordisk is in Denmark).
This bet asks, at the end of December 31st 2025, will the FDA designate Ozempic as "resolved" (YES), or any other designation e.g. shortage, available, high demand (NO).
1,000Kalshi market on this just resolved: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxozempicshort/ozempic-shortage#KXOZEMPICSHORT-26
@WilliamGunn This bet resolves on December 31st. The FDA's decision is subject to lawsuits and other political interventions that could change today's announcement.
@WilliamGunn The Dec 31st condition is in the title, it's in the post text, and you are allowed to sell your position before the market resolves.
Also the whole point of the bet is that the FDA goes back and forth on these things (they waffled on an earlier decision on October).
@SirSalty resolves on Dec 31st. Reasoning is that FDA is likely to be politicized on such a hot-button issue. Could declare "resolved" status and then walk it back quickly. Happened with tirzepatide in October '24 (was eventually resolved in December).