I think it’s possible but unlikely. Kraken has strong security, compliance focus, staking and institutional services that set it apart, but it still trails Binance, Coinbase and big APAC players on liquidity and derivatives. Unless Kraken ramps up global liquidity, derivatives, and institutional partnerships, breaking into third place will be tough.

Hard to say whether Kraken will reach #3 by the end of this year. Binance, MEXC, and Gate are still ahead in trading volume, but Kraken’s EU license and NinjaTrader acquisition show serious growth potential. Even if it doesn’t hit third, it’s definitely strengthening its global position.