Will Jack Strominger make it to 100 years old?
3
70Ṁ162Aug 1
92%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Hmm, this might be almost exactly 50%. Strominger has only a year and a half to go before he would reach the age of 100, https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html and some arithmetic suggests that the survival probability could be (1- 0.349177)^(171/365)*(1 - 0.366635) = 51.8% so I rounded it up to 52%. Also setting some limit orders.
Related questions
Related questions
Will CGP Grey live to be 100 years old?
17% chance
Will Morris Chang make it to 94?
95% chance
Will Steve Austad become centenarian?
34% chance
Will Steve Horvath become a centenarian?
50% chance
Will the oldest person alive in 2030 be at least 120 years old?
20% chance
Will Edward Oakley Thorp reach age 100?
50% chance
Will Jensen Huang make it to age 100?
20% chance
Will Vernon L. Smith reach age 100?
40% chance
Will Matthew Stanley Meselson reach age 100
48% chance
Will James D. Watson hit age 100?
32% chance