If Trump wins, will his approval rating be above 40% after one year in office?
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If he does not win or does not serve a full year in office for any reason, resolves N/A. Resolution source: 538 Job Approval average
Update 2025-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Source Update:
The market will now use the RCP average approval rating instead of the 538 Job Approval average.
All resolution criteria remain the same except for this change in the source metric.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Looks like he was actually slightly above 40% for most of his first term https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
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