Gemini 3.0 Pro outperforms GPT-5 on METR 50% time horizon?
62
1kṀ8944Nov 8
57%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time. See METR's "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" for the technical definition. Claude 3.7 Sonnet, released in February 2025, was the leading model with a 50% horizon of 59 minutes.
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
boughtṀ250YES
Related questions
Related questions
Gemini 3.0 released before October 31?
17% chance
Gemini 3.0 released before October 25?
8% chance
Gemini 3.0 released before November 15?
35% chance
Gemini 3.0 released before October 23?
9% chance
Will Gemini 3.0 Pro outperform Gemini 2.5 Pro on the LMArena (Without Style Control)
77% chance
Gemini 3.0 released in November 2025?
55% chance
Gemini 3's 50% time horizon, per METR
Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon?
57% chance
Will we know GPT-5-Pro's METR 50% Time-Horizon before November?
27% chance
GPT-5 Pro's 50% time horizon, per METR