Presumably, the $1 million Gold Card counts. The clarification that refers to $5 million - muddies the waters a bit.

...Is this "expected" value... normal?

@Quroe You can ask @ian to be sure but I've seen this before so perhaps it is just a way to reference numbers. 😂

@Quroe I believe it's the usual expected value calculation using the probability of each bucket times some representative value for that bucket (midpoint? and who knows what happens for the last bucket, maybe I should actually read the code).

Expected value is not the most intuitive summary statistic for non-normal distributions.

@jcb I'm pretty sure he was referring to how "Gold" got turned into an RGB code for the color gold.

oh 😂

@jcb And also to satisfy your curiosity:

@Eliza They almost always over-value the extreme end, especially if the extreme end is large and the current value is small. It's very hard for traders to get the extreme ends small enough.

0:
    midpoint: 0.5

what.

@Quroe market is undervalued

@Eliza Heck. Okay. The joke is no longer going over my head. I get it now. 😅 Yes, this was about the unit being an RGB value.

Carry on.

lol, me regurgitating expected value stuff that I figured out on this very market 9 months ago https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell#u3p8xjttxwk

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4q1lddj8go.amp

Maybe it's actually happening after all?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Applications are open: https://trumpcard.gov/

@Bayesian If people have applied (and paid the $15,000 processing fee), but haven't actually received their card yet, would you count that?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 @Bayesian this is a really important clarification and a timely response would be most helpful.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Looks like the $15,000 processing fee is not the entirety or even majority of the total card cost? so that doesn't seem like a card sold to me. I'm not sure what the necessary or sufficient conditions are for someone counting as having bought a card but if you've only payed a small % of the total cost that doesn't seem like it counts

@Bayesian Yeah, makes sense, thanks!

@TimothyJohnson5c16 not in 2025

Is kinda odd for this market that the gold card notes costs 1/5th and a new platinum card might be coming at the original price

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/07/07/trump-gold-card-visa-immigration/

Trump and his aides have repeatedly exaggerated the likelihood that such a program can be implemented under current law, and they have made no effort to introduce legislation to make it happen. Immigration attorneys and other legal experts say a president has no power to unilaterally create a new visa category, which would require an act of Congress.

Site launched today: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5346271-donald-trump-gold-card-website/.

It's now called the Trump Card: https://trumpcard.gov/

in case there's any ambiguity, "Trump Cards" will count for the purpose of this market

How will this resolve if such a program is implemented in an unconstitutional manner (e.g. via an executive order, while a decision by Congress would be necessary) which causes courts to reverse the whole process?

Lutnick confirms they’ve sold 1000 in a single day

Is that enough to resolve all options below 1000 as No @Bayesian? Or would you need more concrete confirmation of that figure?

@elf Since these options are linked multiple choice, i cant resolve some options early. I can’t say for sure whether these count or he’s misstating things, but those would probably count? I don’t know the details for these gold cards already sold but at the end of the year i’ll make a more precise accounting of the total count

the fact that the almost identical polymarket market has 0 cards sold at 16% still makes me think I might be missing something so I don’t wanna confirm that these 1000 cards sold definitely count, yet. However they seem likely to

This all doesn't make much sense to me. Lutnick is the Secretary of Commerce, but visas are managed by the State Department. The requirements for the existing EB-5 investor visa have been defined by act of Congress. There's no mention of the new gold card that I can find on the Commerce or State department websites. So I suspect that "sold" is being used here in a very loose sense.

I have no idea on what basis the administration thinks they can set visa requirements without congressional approval (other than, okay, this administration thinks the law doesn't exist and they can do anything, I guess). @Bayesian How will you handle this market if cards are sold but their legal status is in question?

@elf I'd love to bet on how many are in use. That seems more solid than the hard to evaluate "sold" state.

@elf oops

@elf what account do we think the Commerce Secretary is putting the money in? Just straight into the treasury?

Also if l were going to throw down even $1 mil I’d want a receipt, plus proof that a path to my green card actually existed.

Seems like selling 1,000 passes to become US citizens, a process that ordinarily takes years and much coordination across government agencies, at $5 mil each should have more of a paper trail than a post on Xitter.

What if I’m a leader of Tren de Aragua? Plausible, since when other countries have tried this type of citizenship program it has mostly appealed to organized criminals. What do I show ICE so they don’t load me on a plane?

Or maybe it’s worth considering that perhaps the Commerce Secretary was exaggerating some aspect of the claim about selling 1,000 already to generate hype and manufacture legitimacy?

@jcb My feeling is that they have to be real usable visas issued by the Department of State (not just like, concepts of a visa), but that any potential legal challenges should be irrelevant.

@n_t sub “greencard with a path to citizenship” for “visa” as they are not the same thing and the former is what was promised

@BlueDragonfsir enough. I do wonder what the long term features of that residency will be.