What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?

1kṀ4177

Jan 1

21%

It is #1 in Elo according to Chatbot Arena Leaderboard

74%

Its main name is GPT-5

55%

It will have Video(Input) modality

42%

It will have Video(Output) modality

70%

It will have Audio(Input) modality

50%

It will have Audio(Output) modality

94%

It will have been released in H2 2025

65%

It can score Bronze or higher on IMO

It has an anthropomorphic name

"Best" refers to on December 31st, 2024.

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Update 2025-27-01 (PST): - Best is defined as the model that is #1 in Elo according to the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard as of December 31st, 2024. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-08-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Models named GPT-5.x are considered to have the main name "GPT-5".

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ250 YES

Does ”its main name is GPT-5” include models named ”GPT-5.x”?

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Bayesian Definition? Is this just saying it's considered one of the set of the most capable models, however that's defined?

if it's at the top of this ranking

like gpt-4o currently is

updated the option name to make this clesr (prev name wss ‘model is SOTA on chatbot arena’)

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