This market resolves YES if:
An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe.
To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries.
See also Polymarket's market.
See also:
Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Comprehensive Ceasefire: A ceasefire that means 'nobody can fight at all for the next week' would count as a temporary end to the conflict.
Localized Ceasefire: A ceasefire that means 'no fighting in this little area but everywhere else is fine' would not count.
1,000The lack of U.S. aid will start to bite within weeks, with a major impact likely hitting Ukraine’s fighting capability in a few weeks to a couple of months. artillery shells are critical.
Here’s the likely scenario:
Days to a Week: Ukraine starts feeling the pinch as it realizes no more U.S. shipments are coming. Commanders might tighten ammunition use, but morale and planning take a hit.
One to Two Weeks: Stockpiles shrink noticeably. If fighting intensifies, Ukraine struggles to hold ground, making leaders more open to terms. The U.S. can point to this vulnerability to push for talks.
Beyond Two Weeks: If no deal is struck, the situation worsens. Within a month or two, Ukraine’s artillery could fall silent in key areas, risking major losses.
Russia would intensify fighting, knowing that there is the shortage of shells.
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What is the critical US military aid? Ammunition. Europe unable to produce enough to make up for it. Also, there are howitzers and other pieces that are constantly destroyed.
President Trump and Zelensky plan to sign the minerals deal today. Trump wants to announce it at tonight's address to Congress -Reuters. With Ukraine. Until it is signed..it is not signed.
President Trump has stopped all military aid to Ukraine following the Friday argument with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, according to Bloomberg.
The pause will continue until Trump determines that "the Ukrainians show a commitment of good faith peace negotiations."
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-starmer-trump-b025877c40ffe0ddf2a92adad1715231
Zelensky says a peace deal is "very, very far away".
I can make an endless list of points as to why this market is too high, but I'll leave a few here:
-> Ukraine - U.S. fallout
-> Starmer stepping up aid and encouraging all of EU to do so as well
-> Russia is in a good position to continue the war and get what they want with current U.S. stance
-> Whether or not the minerals deal gets signed is irrelevant to this question because if it doesn't, Zelensky has E.U. to turn to and if it does, that's just more funding for Ukraine to continue the war.
@JaredAsh Things will change between today and Wednesday. There are too many moving parts here for this to be 0%. There is more going on in the back-end than we know about publicly.
@JaredAsh Ukraine is undeniably in a lot worse position now than it was a week ago. Europe probably isn't going to step up its support meaningfully so Zelensky's hands are tied. If Putin wants to end the war he can now do so on very favorable terms.
This is more of a steelman of the YES position than my actual view.
@Shai after leaving the white house, seems like Zelensky visited his EU and British partners as expected. Greeted quite warmly there and at least the British seem to have promised to step up support and gave more aid during the visit. No matter how I look at it, this war's gonna continue.
@JaredAsh I'm pretty skeptical that the EU can (or is even willing) to compensate for diminishing US support. And with Ukraine already not doing too well on the battlefield that's pretty scary.
@Shai ukraine's battlefield struggles have been primarily due to a manpower shortage which neither EU nor US support does anything to fix
less equipment certainly doesn't help though
@Shai while none of that is false, this question resolves by April 19th which is less than 2 months away. If many of the EU allies are promising to increase their aid and encouraging the continuing of the moral fight of good vs. evil, do you still think it's possible for it to stop in less than 2 months?
@JaredAsh Yes I think 15-16% is pretty accurate. At 10 or less I would be buying. At this point I just don't see why Putin would end the war rather than continue for a few more months.
@Shai "I just don't see why Putin would end the war rather than continue for a few more months"- Exactly, no terms that Zelensky puts forward now will Putin ever accept because he knows he can get more! Zelensky burned bridges with US, the only people who were willing to communicate with Russia and get them on the table for a peace deal.
@JaredAsh My market here says the bridges are far from burned: https://manifold.markets/TimothyJohnson5c16/will-trump-sign-a-deal-with-ukraine
@JaredAsh cause zelensky just said hes ready to sign da mineral dealz
@JaredAsh stop playing with fake money, just go to Polymarket and make your dreams come true because they are trading at 27% (instead of 14% we see on Manifold).