Will Cristina Kirchner be imprisoned until the end of 2025?

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On December 2022, Argentina’s Vice-President and former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, was sentenced to six years in prison and given a lifelong ban on holding public office after being found guilty in a $1bn fraud case related to public works (Source). However, analysts quoted by the press say it is unlikely she will go to jail any time soon, as she enjoys immunity as VP and head of the Senate (Source).

This market resolves as YES if Kirchner spends at least 2 hours in jail until the end of 2025. It resolves as NO otherwise.

Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that house arrest will not be considered jail for the purposes of this market's resolution.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Clarification: The description of the market states that she must spend "...at least 2 hours in jail..." for it to resolve positively. While I confess I hadn't considered the possibility of house arrest, I think it's clear that it is not jail, so it isn't enough to resolve as 'yes'.

However, analysts quoted by the press say it is unlikely she will go to jail any time soon, as she enjoys immunity as VP and head of the Senate

Staying under house arrest is confusing in the context of this statement. She is clearly imprisoned (at home) but not in prison.

bought Ṁ50 NO

she is not going to jail. she's too old, so she gets house arrest. resolves NO.

@256 that counts as jail. It's probably better to resolve this as NA as OP's conditional was very bad tho

bought Ṁ300 YES

Supreme court ruling is out. She is going to jail

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