I made a good faith effort using multiple search words on their internal search function and couldn't find the methodology they use.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen check the ABOUT tab (on the side). There is a YouTube video and some salient definitions and explanations.

The most significant clarification I can offer is that rallies IN FAVOR of policies or governance do not count.

largest protest in country since 2023

@BlackCrusade check resolution criteria, it counts if it attracts over 10,000 participants

There are a bunch of II labeled countries that didn't have a first entry. Presumably because there is an ongoing one without there being an entry before the disturbance starting. Maybe have a month attached to the label for clarity (post June) for those that were put up now.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen all the II labeled entries have an original. It will pop up when you search. I’ll gladly take your input and add the month. Can’t right now as I’m camping.

May Update: no resolutions

• Hungary, already resolved (new protest last month: “Protest against foreign funding bill”)

• Japan: no market (new protest last month: “Protest against constitutional amendment”)

@BlueDragon There is one now in Kenya, though of course whether it ends up on the list, is another matter. Unsure how to add the possibility that there may be another later again.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen please feel free to add it! If it shows up on the list I will resolve it. If not it remains an option going forward.

@BlueDragon the issue is that it is in the news right now, so it would only be a prediction on whether it is reported on

@JussiVilleHeiskanen well, whether it ends up on the Carnagie Foundation list, yes. You can read more about their methodology on their website.

I think I will do that. Be back soon.

@BlueDragon I found this: https://carnegieendowment.org/programs/democracy-conflict-and-governance?lang=en

Democracy, Conflict, and Governance

The Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program is a leading source of independent policy research, writing, and outreach on global democracy, conflict, and governance. It analyzes and seeks to improve international efforts to reduce democratic backsliding, mitigate conflict and violence, overcome political polarization, promote gender equality, and advance pro-democratic uses of new technologies.

@BlueDragon Ahah, this may be the most germane link...

https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2020/04/misunderstanding-global-protests?lang=en

@BlueDragon Hmm. even that link above is more analysis of their results, rather than their methodology. The only thing I found about methodology was about their study of climate protests, which told which types protests did not qualify. But I have yet to find a subpage specifically about their methodology. I'll keep searching though. Thank you for piqueing my curiosity.

Note this was added May, so only mass protests starting in May or later will count.

Looking at India 2024 - I think this protest tracker is missing 90%+ of the protests of 1k+ people. There is no way India has so few protests.

@MaybeNotDepends Heck maybe 99% of the protests are missing. India has a lot of people and a lot of farmer, religious, ethnic, political, and other protests. I'd expect 1000+ protests/year with 1000+ people.

@MaybeNotDepends I think the data source is bad and the market should be resolved NA.

@MaybeNotDepends Sold my shares (crashed the price, I don't care). I wish there was a good data source for this, but I don't think there is. Close the market, resolve NA.

@MaybeNotDepends if you give me a source or two for India, I’ll ask about the protests too.

Please read through the Carnegie Protest Tracker’s website. They have a methodology that suggests there is more veracity and accountability to how they are verifying the facts on the ground and determining the size of protests than a regular media outlet. This may explain why some protests reported in the media don’t show up in the tracker.

I will share back anything I learn from corresponding with them so that traders can make an informed decision.

In the meantime, please do not post 5 messages in one sitting. 1-2 is enough. This is too much to respond to.

I believe the data source is not stating how many people were at a single protest - but they are compiling them. Is this true?

If so, it isn't measuring "if there is a protest of > 10,000 participants" so much as "if there is a series of protests that summed had > 10,000 participants". The latter is significantly more likely to occur.

The South Korean protests against Yoon are listed as starting in Dec 2024 and going for 4 months. So they occurred in 2025, but the biggest ones were in Dec 2024 I think. I suspect there were protests of 10,000 people in 2025 - but the data source doesn't say (at least on the main page).

@MaybeNotDepends The "peak size" was > 100,000.

Link to the Carnegie Protest Tracker doesn't work. Did they stop doing it?

@MaybeNotDepends works for me

@BlueDragon Ah ha, it might have been offline for a bit.