Invalid contract
Background
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is a federal initiative established by the Trump administration to identify and eliminate wasteful government spending. DOGE has made several claims about the amount of money it has saved:
Initially reported saving $55 billion, though this figure was later disputed due to accounting errors
By February 27, 2025, claimed to have saved $65 billion in federal funds
As of March 4, 2025, DOGE's website states they have saved $105 billion
However, verification of these claims has been challenging. DOGE has only provided records for a fraction of the claimed savings, and some earlier claims have been revised or deleted from their website.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on the final official figure that DOGE reports as their total savings generated when they complete their work or issue a final report. The figure will be taken from:
The official DOGE website (doge.gov)
An official press release or report from DOGE
A statement from the administration that explicitly states the final savings figure
If DOGE is disbanded or discontinued without issuing a final savings figure, this market will resolve based on the last officially claimed savings figure published on their website or in official communications.
Considerations
DOGE's reported savings figures have increased significantly over time and have faced scrutiny regarding their accuracy
The timeline for when DOGE will issue a "final" figure is uncertain
There may be discrepancies between what DOGE claims to have saved and what independent analysts or government watchdogs verify
The methodology for calculating savings may change over time, potentially affecting the final reported figure
1,000If DOGE is disbanded or discontinued without issuing a final savings figure, this market will resolve based on the last officially claimed savings figure published on their website or in official communications.
Just in case it's necessary, the Internet Archive seems to be cataloging this page religiously. If the Doge.gov website goes down, this might be a useful backup.
https://web.archive.org/web/20250000000000*/https://doge.gov/
This might be a better link, the savings page:
https://web.archive.org/web/20250000000000*/https://doge.gov/savings
@BlueDragon I can't find a single serious analysis of how much DOGE saved. There's the website and everything else is just libs complaining and "fact checking". No one has bothered to actually scrape the savings page and add it up themselves, or even to pull a number out of a hat.
@FergusArgyll these analyses will come. It’s a really challenging accounting task that depends on assumptions about savings for whom and on what time scale. It is possible, even likely, that under many sets of reasonable assumptions DOGE is costing billions, not saving them. There are plenty of good journalists with close to zero resources and possibly under threat of losing even those trying to report as accurately as they can about what’s going on as best they can determine in this moment. I wish I could support that more.
I’m not sure how to create a market around this when the political zeitgeist is such that everything is presumed partisan, as you’re so perfectly underscoring with the quip that all current efforts amount to “just libs complaining” and the very idea of fact checking is so suspect that you’re using quotation marks. Sad really but here we are.
@BlueDragon But I mean this honestly; if CNN or NYT or WAPO were to publish an article by their investigative journalists or something (not opinion page - something I can use as a source in Wikipedia), that ends off with "therefore, according to our analysis, DOGE saved 35 dollars and 16 cents" I'd more or less believe it.
But they seem to be lazy or something. any article about DOGE is basically "lol they wrote 8b instead of 8m and then fixed it the next day, lol"