10k up at 32%. Guess I should have waited for a better price.

I may not be making any mana with this market, but I hope I get some cred for timing it perfectly 😏

In the past, there were many firearms and shots fired, does that count? 1/6 was peaceful nobody died by the insurrectionists.

@SteveBright 1/6 included at least one fatality caused by insurrectionists, but I think it’s listed here because they brought peaceful zipties into Congress and tried to overturn an election.

@SteveBright In what universe was 1/6 peaceful?

@Panfilo There were no fatalities caused by the insurrectionists.

You can read the relevant Wikipedia section here

@FergusArgyll The article includes multiple controversial deaths. Whether someone would interpret them as proximately or ultimately caused by the insurrection is determined by their politics. Some would say the suicides were caused by the insurrection, though I don't know if I would go that far. Regardless, people died other than Babbitt. The initial claim that the insurrection was peaceful is way, waaaaay more biased than anything I said. They had a gallows set up outside and were looking for Mike Pence and Nancy Pelosi (and more) but didn't find them.

@Panfilo Oh, I don't think it was peaceful!

But if you follow the medical examiner in every case - they concluded that not one death was caused by the j6ers.

It's not really the place to argue about this but it upsets me that because the first reports were false, people still believe that.

Why did this not move? With all that's going on in LA. Not 10 or more deaths? Certainly it's widespread 1500 insurrections in USA!

@SteveBright because @Panfilo has a large limit order. Double digit deaths is also a pretty high bar.

@SteveBright What's the current death toll by your count?

@Panfilo Probably about Zero. It's not a running total, it has to be all in one riot, or geographically spread time period?

@BrunoJ What would trigger "organized terrorism" as opposed to, say, lonewolf act of terror

@GazDownright I would say an act of terror committed by an organized terrorist cell composed of 3+ individuals, or an act of terror backed by a state. But I'm open to discussing the criterion.

What do Yes bettors think is going to happen this month?

If Trump loses, I believe there will likely be unrest at least as significant as Jan 6.

So to be clear the BLM uprisings wouldn’t count?

They would not, in my opinion, constitute major social unrest, but pretty close. For the purpose of this question I would qualify the BLM protests/riots as moderate social unrest. Well on its way to major unrest, but not quite there yet.