Consider all of the people who:
Put money into their 401(k) in 2025
Will live to turn 59 ½ in 2060 (this is the age when you can start taking out penalty-free 401(k) withdrawals)
In retrospect, will the 401(k) investments of the typical person in this group be practically useless by 2060? For example, because of radical transformations to the economy (possibly due to AI), societal collapse, etc.
I expect this to be pretty clear, but if it's not, this market will resolve to a poll. If everyone in this group is dead by 2060, this market resolves N/A.
Update 2025-01-30 (PST): - Resolution Clarification:
If people hardly ever withdraw from their 401(k)s for either of the reasons discussed, or only withdraw without significantly impacting their lives, then this would resolve to NO. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If people hardly ever withdraw from their 401(k)s—because they're already extremely wealthy ("too rich to care") or because withdrawal is unattractive (e.g., punitive taxes)—or only withdraw in ways that don't meaningfully affect their lives, this will resolve YES (i.e., 401(k)s are practically useless).
This corrects an earlier statement that said it would resolve NO.
1,000@Martlet If people hardly ever bother to withdraw from their 401k for either of these reasons, or only do so with a spirit of "haha, I may as well but it's not really going to make any difference in my life" then this would resolve NO