Will some U.S. software engineers be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
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Requires at least 3 articles from traditionally reputable news organizations reporting that some U.S. software engineers have lost income, job security, or hiring velocity as a result of AI-based automation.

I won't be proactively searching for such articles - I will need to come across them organically or they can be posted in the comments / sent to me via Twitter message or other DM.

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The title question and the description do not match.

@DavidBolin How do you mean? Obviously they are not identical, but they do appear to “match” to me. The description is the particular way OP has decided to formalize the question the title, and the description has been there the whole time

@JimHays It is 100% guaranteed that you will see such articles.

It is not guaranteed in the slightest that any actual software engineer will be negatively impacted, and highly likely to be false.

@DavidBolin Make your own market if you don’t like this one

Loss of hiring velocity: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/shopify-says-no-new-hires-unless-ai-cant-do-the-job-81c34f1e

(At Shopify, AI-engineer hires are up, hires-in-total are down, and they've adopted a barrier to hiring where they won't try to hire for a position absent an explicit argument for why that position's job can't be handled by AI instead.)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-ai-tools-are-reshaping-the-coding-workforce-6ad24c86

“Leaner development teams and a higher bar for hiring new roles are some of the changes coming as companies turn to generative AI coding tools”

“The unemployment rate in the information technology sector rose from 3.9% in December to 5.7% in January, well above the month’s overall jobless rate of 4%, according to a report from consulting firm Janco Associates based on data from the U.S. Department of Labor. Victor Janulaitis, CEO of Janco, attributes part of the shift to the growing use of AI.“

“[W]hen hiring developers, companies say they can be more tempered and selective than several years ago”

@JimHays @CarsonGale these statement are enough to quality as 1/3 articles, right?

@HenriThunberg yeah I think it does. LMK if anyone disagrees.

Also this would probably qualify

https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-software-engineers-coders-bad-market-ai-2025-3

@OscarMadden This is about IT, not software engineers.

The from the article (itself quoting someone else):

“Jobs are being eliminated within the IT function which are routine and mundane, such as reporting, clerical administration,” Janulaitis said. “As they start looking at AI, they’re also looking at reducing the number of programmers, systems designers, hoping that AI is going to be able to provide them some value and have a good rate of return.”

@Shai The article isn’t exclusively about software engineers, but that doesn’t mean it’s “not about software engineers“. E.g. “New Indeed job postings in software development, for instance, declined 8.5% in January from a year earlier”

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@CarsonGale care to rule on this one?

Thoughts on this @CarsonGale?

i put the title question at 30% because i think increased productivity will increase the value of developers. but, i think that the market may resolve the other way anyway due to media portrayal.

on reflection, should resolve yes almost no matter what due to ai fear.

predictedYES

@JimHays Note that Klarna is Swedish, so this would not count towards one of the three articles

predictedYES

although they serve the US, so maybe some of their engineers are US? Not sure, without more research

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