GPT 4.5 Intelligence (higher options) | Manifold

GPT 4.5 Intelligence (higher options)

19

100Ṁ980

Jul 1

98.9%

<65

0.2%

65

0.2%

66

0.2%

67

0.2%

68

0.2%

69

0.1%

70+

In May 2024, Orion (GPT-4.5, assumed to be GPT-5 at the time) was promised to be a Whale by Microsoft.

How groundbreaking will it be?

Source: https://artificialanalysis.ai (subject to some discretion in case the methodology changes)

Related market (with lower options):

/ChinmayTheMathGuy/gpt-45-intelligence-via-artificiala

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

I threw this together using Claude quickly. I mostly double-checked it, but take it with a grain of salt.

This is my major reaction to 4.5 so far, but time will tell I guess.

Related questions

Will GPT-5 have an estimated IQ higher than 101?

+6% 1d85% chance

GPT 4.5 "Intelligence" via artificialanalysis.ai

What will be true about GPT-5? (See description)

Will GPT-4 be legally considered AGI?

What will be true about GPT-5?

Will GPT-5 like to delve?

-5% 1d48% chance

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Is GPT4 sentient?

Will GPT-4.5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter]

Related questions

Will GPT-5 have an estimated IQ higher than 101?

Will GPT-5 like to delve?

GPT 4.5 "Intelligence" via artificialanalysis.ai

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

What will be true about GPT-5? (See description)

Is GPT4 sentient?

Will GPT-4 be legally considered AGI?

Will GPT-4.5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

What will be true about GPT-5?

Could GPT-4 recursively self-improve to AGI with the right cognitive architecture? [@Altimor, twitter]

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules