Data is currently at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv
or
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)
January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.
If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.
Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C resolves to an exceed 1.195C option.
Resolves per first update seen by me or posted as long, as there is no reason to think data shown is in error. If there is reason to think there may be an error then resolution will be delayed at least 24 hours. Minor later update should not cause a need to re-resolve.
1,000Vibe betting always works! (lets see how well it works this month):
Expecting 2025 to supercede 2024's record of 1.39 for March based on mostly statistical extrapolation for missing forecast data (last 12 days).
Expecting current forecast up until middle of month to track or be slightly above 2024 on average. The second half of March 2024 had an abnormal dip, so on average following the trend I expect something more like this for March (ignore rest of year past March), using the OU as a guess for the offset:
You can imagine the line being within (very roughly) +- 0.6 C for the last ~2 weeks and roughly +- 0.3 for the next 2 weeks.
Even with a slightly less likely 0 offset for the error for the rest of the month (less likely since I expect it will take some time for the error to drift back to 0, based on the recent trend, giving on average a positive offset for the rest of the month), on average it looks like 2025 March will beat 2024 just by eyeballing it, so at the moment I think the last two bins should be the most likely:
