Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page.
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/past/?search=SpaceX
in July UTC.
If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
(Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated. However, it isn't having much success recently.)
1,000The page shows 30 since April 28 (which was 58 days ago). So naïvely, if I assume that SpaceX launches at a constant rate, we should expect about 30*31/58 ~= 16 launches. (But in reality, I'd expect the number of launches each month to either follow a Poisson distribution or to be a result of some weird schedule that I haven't figured out yet.)
@duck_master Does your expected Poisson distribution change if you start thinking in terms of approx 3 day pad turnaround, ~6 day droneship turnarounds on East coast 5 day on West coast. 2 pads and 2 drone ships on East coast 1 pad 1 droneship West coast plus Boca Chica for Starship a low chance of one launch in July. Then factor in sometimes being weather delays, sometimes droneships need maintenance, sometimes technical issues, sometimes falcon heavy or crewed launches which have dress rehearsal and increased time for pad turnaround due to changeovers and more possibility of ISS scheduling issues. External payloads likely to have different strange scheduling requirements compared to Starlink missions. Probably more I haven't listed.
Amalgamating lots of different unknown delays gives you what sort of distribution?