Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?
8
100Ṁ11262027
1.7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The delivery method of the device is irrelevant.
The device itself must detonate causing a nuclear chain reaction and explosion. A dirty bomb does not cause a chain reaction and so will resolve to “No.”
The territory of Ukraine is considered to be all territory claimed prior to the 2014 Russian invasion and seizure of Crimea and Donbas.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will the Russia Ukraine conflict reach a conclusion by the end of 2026?
82% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2026?
3% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2028?
4% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2030?
7% chance
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will Russia launch a RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before January 20, 2029?
80% chance
Will Russia kill 1,000+ people before 2026 with nuclear strikes?
4% chance
Will Ukraine fire an ATACMS missile into Russia before September 1st 2026?
98% chance
Will Ukraine have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2035?
23% chance