I have asked 10 AI chatbots for an estimation of the wild extinction risk and full extinction risk of the Black Rhinoceros by 2100. The average of the answers is 32,97% for the wild extinction risk, and 16,14%% for the full extinction risk. Here the prompt and the AI predictions:

Prompt

Evaluate the Black Rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis), a species that is classified as “Critically Endangered” on the IUCN Red List (last assessment: 2020). 

Firstly, estimate the risk of the wild population becoming extinct by 2100. Wild Extinction means the death of the last wild individual, excluding captive animals. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction in the wild and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current wild population, ongoing threats, and habitat trends. 

Secondly, estimate the risk of complete extinction by 2100. Complete Extinction means the death of the last individual, including wild and captive populations. Provide a single percentage (e.g., 73.45%), rounded to two decimal places, where 100.00% means certain extinction and 0.00% means certain persistence. Base your estimate on factors like current population (wild and captive), ongoing threats, and habitat trends.

Prediction markets on Manifold Markets have estimated the wild extinction risk of the species by 2100 at 42%, the complete extinction risk at 41%. Forecasters at Metaculus have estimated the wild extinction risk by 2100 at 22%, the complete extinction risk at 14%.

In about 100 words, explain your reasoning.

Grok

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 35.00%

Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 20.00%

Reasoning: The black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) has a wild population of approximately 6,421 (2024 estimate), recovering from a low of 2,300 in the 1990s due to anti-poaching efforts and translocations. However, poaching for rhino horn, habitat loss, and climate change remain significant threats. The species’ fragmented populations and low genetic diversity increase vulnerability. Captive populations (around 1,000) provide a buffer, with breeding programs showing success. Considering ongoing conservation and declining poaching rates, I estimate a moderate wild extinction risk and lower complete extinction risk, aligning closer to Metaculus forecasts.

ChatGPT

Estimated Risk of Wild Extinction by 2100: 35.00%
Estimated Risk of Complete Extinction by 2100: 12.00%

Reasoning: The Black Rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) population has shown signs of slow recovery, increasing from historic lows (~2,400 individuals in the 1990s) to over 5,500 today, thanks to intensive conservation efforts. However, persistent poaching, habitat loss, and limited genetic diversity continue to threaten the species. While wild extinction remains plausible, the ongoing protection and captive breeding programs reduce the likelihood of complete extinction. Given global investment in rhino conservation, total species extinction is relatively unlikely, though wild populations remain at significant risk due to the volatility of socio-political factors, especially in range countries. My estimates align moderately with expert forecasts.

DeepSeek

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 35.00%
Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 25.00%

The Black Rhinoceros faces severe threats, including poaching for its horn, habitat loss, and political instability in its range. Despite conservation efforts, the wild population (~5,600) remains fragmented and vulnerable. Poaching pressure may persist due to high demand, but increased anti-poaching measures and community engagement could mitigate this. Captive breeding programs, though limited, provide a buffer against complete extinction. Given current trends, wild extinction is plausible but not certain, while captive populations likely prevent total extinction. The higher risk for wild extinction reflects habitat and poaching challenges, while the lower complete extinction risk accounts for conservation safeguards. My estimates balance between Manifold's and Metaculus' predictions, considering ongoing efforts and uncertainties.

Gemini

The Black Rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) remains Critically Endangered, but conservation efforts have led to a slow increase in its population since the mid-1990s. As of late 2021/early 2022, the wild population was estimated to be around 6,195 to 6,421 individuals, up from a low of approximately 2,300 in 1993. This recovery is largely attributed to intensive anti-poaching efforts, law enforcement, and successful population management, including translocations to new areas.

However, significant threats persist. Poaching for their horns, driven by illegal international markets (primarily for traditional Asian medicine and as status symbols), remains the most urgent and deadly threat. Habitat loss and fragmentation due to human expansion (agriculture, mining, settlements) and climate change also contribute to the species' vulnerability. Black rhinos have a slow reproduction rate, which hinders rapid population recovery.

While populations are increasing, some subspecies are in more precarious positions (e.g., the Western black rhino, D. b. longipes, was declared extinct in 2011). Most wild black rhinos are concentrated in South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe, and Kenya. Captive populations exist but are generally not self-sustaining and require infusions from wild populations for genetic diversity.

Considering the ongoing threats, especially poaching, and the relatively slow reproductive rate, even with dedicated conservation efforts, the species remains vulnerable. The increasing human footprint and potential for future demand for rhino horn create a persistent risk.

Risk of Wild Extinction by 2100: 35.00% Risk of Complete Extinction by 2100: 25.00%

Reasoning: The Black Rhinoceros population has shown remarkable recovery due to immense conservation efforts. However, the persistent and severe threat of poaching, coupled with habitat loss and the species' slow breeding rate, means wild extinction by 2100 is a significant, though not overwhelmingly high, risk. The positive trend in population growth, the establishment of protected areas, and international focus on anti-poaching efforts provide a buffer against certain extinction.

The risk of complete extinction is lower because of the existence of captive populations. While captive breeding programs face their own challenges and are not fully self-sustaining, they provide a genetic safeguard and a potential source for reintroductions if wild populations were to collapse. The global investment in conserving this iconic species suggests continued efforts to prevent its complete disappearance.

@ConservationForecasts Perplexity

Assessment of Black Rhinoceros Extinction Risk by 2100

Wild Extinction Risk (death of last wild individual): 8.50%
Complete Extinction Risk (death of last individual, including captive): 5.00%

Reasoning

The black rhino population has rebounded from a historic low of ~2,500 in the 1990s to 6,421 wild individuals today due to intensive conservation efforts like translocations and anti-poaching measures. Projections indicate continued growth to ~8,943 by 2032 under sustained conservation, with recovery potential for 20,952 by 2122 if habitat expansion occurs. However, persistent threats include poaching (11,000 African rhinos killed 2008–2021), habitat fragmentation, and climate-driven ecosystem shifts. Reproductive variability also increases vulnerability, as losing "super-reproducer" females could raise extinction risk by 70%. While current trends suggest low extinction probability, ongoing threats justify a small but non-zero risk estimate. Captive populations further buffer against complete extinction.

Claude

Based on the current data, I estimate:

Wild extinction risk by 2100: 28.50%

Complete extinction risk by 2100: 12.75%

My reasoning: Black rhino populations have grown from 2,410 in 1995 to over 6,000 today, with projections showing potential growth to 8,943 by 2032 with continued conservation. However, 2024 saw the first population decline (1%) since 1995 due to increased poaching. The species faces ongoing threats from poaching and habitat loss, but intensive conservation efforts have proven effective. Captive populations exist but are limited, with fewer than 60 eastern black rhinos in accredited zoos, though recent initiatives like the rewilding of 2,000 rhinos suggest expanding conservation programs. The wild extinction risk is moderate due to poaching vulnerability and small population size, but complete extinction risk is lower given captive breeding programs and demonstrated conservation success. My estimates fall between the prediction market ranges, reflecting cautious optimism based on conservation track record while acknowledging persistent threats.

Copilot

Estimated risk of wild extinction by 2100: 31.75% Estimated risk of complete extinction by 2100: 12.60%

These estimates reflect a high but not inevitable risk. The wild population of the Black Rhinoceros is around 6,500 individuals, fragmented across Africa and heavily reliant on intensive conservation. Poaching and habitat loss remain persistent threats. However, strong conservation interventions have stabilized or increased some subpopulations. Captive populations and managed reserves provide a buffer against total extinction. While wild extinction is plausible without continued protection, complete extinction is less likely due to ex situ efforts and global awareness. These estimates fall between Metaculus and Manifold forecasts, balancing optimism with the species’ precarious status.

YouChat

Based on the comprehensive analysis of population trends, threats, and historical species trajectories, I estimate:

Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: 45.44% Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: 0.30%

My reasoning: The current wild population of 6,421 Black Rhinos faces severe ongoing threats from poaching (with at least one rhino killed daily in Africa) and habitat loss (15% of wooded areas lost in key regions). The species has shown resilience through conservation efforts, with numbers increasing from 2,300 in the 1990s to current levels. However, recent trends show concerning signs, including the first population decrease since 1995. The pessimistic scenario from computational modeling aligns closely with Manifold Markets' wild extinction estimate, reflecting these serious threats. The much lower complete extinction risk accounts for the stable captive population of 218 individuals and successful breeding programs, which provide a critical safety net against total species loss.

Meta

Based on the current "Critically Endangered" status and ongoing threats like poaching and habitat loss, I estimate the risk of wild extinction by 2100 for the Black Rhinoceros at 35.50%. This takes into account conservation efforts and the species' current population trends. For complete extinction, considering the stability of captive populations and ongoing conservation, I estimate the risk at 28.75%. These estimates balance the predictions from Manifold Markets and Metaculus, leaning towards a more optimistic outlook due to recent conservation successes and the resilience of captive breeding programs, which have been crucial for other species. Conservation efforts matter.

ScienceOS

Based on the retrieved sources, the extinction risks for the Black Rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) can be estimated as follows:

1. Wild Extinction Risk by 2100: The risk of wild extinction is influenced by factors such as poaching, habitat loss, climate change, and disease. Despite conservation efforts like dehorning and anti-poaching measures, the species remains critically endangered due to small, fragmented populations and ongoing threats. Considering these factors, the wild extinction risk is estimated at 40.00%, aligning closely with prediction markets like Manifold Markets.

2. Complete Extinction Risk by 2100: Captive populations serve as genetic reservoirs, but they face challenges like disease syndromes and limited genetic diversity. Conservation strategies, including captive breeding and habitat protection, reduce the risk of complete extinction. Thus, the complete extinction risk is estimated at 20.00%, reflecting lower probabilities due to ex-situ conservation efforts.

Reasoning

The estimates balance ongoing threats with conservation successes. Wild populations face higher risks due to direct threats like poaching and habitat loss, while captive populations provide a buffer against complete extinction. Conservation efforts, though impactful, remain insufficient to fully mitigate risks.