This market is about the extinction risk of the Asian Elephant species by 2100. The market will resolve YES if the Asian Elephant becomes extinct by 2100, or earlier. It will resolve NO if the species does not become extinct before 2100.
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_elephant
IUCN assessment
https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/7140/45818198
For comparison, here the market about the wild extinction risk, excluding captive individuals:
1,000Here a first comparison of the extinction risk of 20 species, for which I have set up markets yesterday and today. I have classified them in ten risk classes.
0-9%: Ultra Low Risk
None
10-19%: Low Risk
None
20-29%: Minor Risk
30-39%: Moderate Risk
Bonobo, Black Rhinoceros, Lion
40-49%: Substantial Risk
White Rhinoceros, Asian Elephant, African Savanna Elephant, Western Gorilla, Tiger, Leopard, Jaguar
50-59%: Significant Risk
Indian Rhinoceros, African Forest Elephant, Sumatran Orangutan, Eastern Gorilla, Snow Leopard
60-69%: High Risk
Tapanuli Orangutan, Bornean Orangutan
70-79%: Severe Risk
80-89%: Critical Risk
90-100%: Ultra High Risk
None