This market resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on Friday, July 4th, the U.S. Senate Passes Trump's tax and spending legislation which is commonly referred to as the "One Big Beautiful Bill"
Resolves NO if the Senate fails to pass the bill by 11:59 PM on July 4th.
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that "One Big Beautiful Bill" is being used synonymously with a budget reconciliation bill.
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน1,624 | |
| 2 | แน753 | |
| 3 | แน735 | |
| 4 | แน547 | |
| 5 | แน532 |
It will be interesting to see how this plays into the Musk-Trump feud.
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Trump says he'll 'look' at deporting Musk as feud reignites
I guess this is a yes? I was confused at first and thought the same bill needs to pass both houses, but it seems like this market is just for the Senate, and they passed their version of it:
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/07/01/congress/trump-megabill-deadline-00434824
@TimothyJohnson5c16 That's how I understand it. We're just checking the Senate.
@Mo17 Yup.
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Senate passes Trump's "big, beautiful bill" in 51 to 50 vote after marathon session - CBS News https://share.google/GlxNv5nT6qY4ib049
Did Trump give an order that won't be followed?
Giving an order that can't be followed is a cardinal sin in military strategy. It is the early signs of the downfall from power, mostly due to lack of control over the key people to power. Lose control of them, and you lose the position of power.
I suspect Trump and his devoted followers will spend a lot of political capital to prevent such a bad omen.
I reserve the right to be wrong.
Kalshi at 83% by July 2nd at time of comment.
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrecnc/reconciliation-bill-passes-the-senate#KXRECNC-25
Polymarket at 80% by July 4th at time of comment.
https://polymarket.com/event/reconciliation-bill-passed-by?tid=1751213881074
@Quroe those markets are for "a reconciliation bill" rather than Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill". Is there a difference?
@jessald i know you didn't ask me. But it's the same thing. It's just known as "One Big Beautiful bill" By trump and his supporters. But it's just a budget reconciliation bill. So yes it's the same thing
@DanBow899 it's not just his supporters. It's literally the title of the bill
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act?wprov=sfla1
https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text
@Quroe it was looking very likely that the bill would pass the Senate by the 4th not too long ago. But all these road blocks are shifting me towards a no being correct. I feel like it'll be passed in July, but the 4th is a very ambitious deadline currently
@DanBow899 At the very least, the Kalshi market is for the 2nd. I have a prayer to win both markets, still.
@DanBow899 They have been pulling a lot of late night bill shenanigans recently. YES may still be in the cards by the 4th.
@Quroe I'm pretty sure that's what it is. Im assuming polymarket needs both the Senate and house to pass it. Kalshi is only the senate
@DanBow899 Well, heck. I think I'll win the YES bet here, but I'm out about $20 on Kalshi's NO.
This was a good test to see which site is more trustworthy when their odds diverge.
@Quroe well, the no on kalshi wasn't a bad bet by any means. I know the odds were high for it passing but it was honestly still a tossup in my opinion
@DanBow899 Agreed, I'm still satisfied I made the best bets given the set of information I had.
It's likely somebody had some strong insider information on Kalshi. Maybe we didn't have any such agents trading here on Manifold.