When will China invade Taiwan?
29
1kแน€5829
2050
3%
2025
9%
2026
12%
2027
9%
2028
8%
2029
11%
2030-2034
8%
2035-2039
7%
2040-2049
33%
Not before 2050

Creating this market because I think the year by year probabilities in my other market are a bit off (at market creation 25% chance of an invasion in 2028 which is a US election year). This will resolve to the same date as the other market - have fun arbitraging!

(I did some initial trades on this market to bring the probabilities in line with the other market, but won't trade further expect to exit that position)

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