Will tesla ($TSLA) be above 210$/s in one year? [13.03.2025]

200Ṁ7589

Mar 13

96%

chance

ALL

Assuming the risk free rate for 1y (0.05) and TSLA volatility last year (0.48). This would be fair odds at 50%.

Will be corrected by splits, and delusion, the best way to measure is by looking at Mcap.

Will resolve Yes if Mcap os tesla on 13.03.2025 is above or at $658B

Will resolve No if under or goes bankrupt.

Resolves N/A for any other events (ex. Tesla merges)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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6 Comments

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sold Ṁ28 NO

Will have to drop 27% by the end of the weekend for this to resolve... would be exciting if that happened though

still at 302 dollars per share, so not quite "go nazi go broke" yet

bought Ṁ30 NO

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgd9v3r69qo

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 97% order

Latest update, according to CompaniesMarketcap there are $3.198B shares outstanding, divided into $658B market cap puts target share price at $205.754.

bought Ṁ900 YES

@DavideBerweger Trading at 227 now, and market cap is 713. Should resolve YES

@TonyPepperoni My read of the criteria is that it had to be over $658B specifically on March 13, 2025.

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