The 2025 UCI Road Cycling World Championships are scheduled to happen in Rwanda in September.
This market aims to forecast whether the event will happen as planned in Rwanda.
To resolve Yes, all of the following events must take place in Rwanda before November 2025. Other events do not matter.
Men's Elite Road Race
Men's Elite Time Trial
Women's Elite Road Race
Women's Elite Time Trial
If any of these events happens in another country or fails to happen in Rwanda, this market resolves No.
1,000Not directly related to road cycling, but the UCI is moving a DIFFERENT world championship this year:
https://www.uci.org/pressrelease/the-2025-uci-gravel-world-championships-will-not-take-place-in-nice/5GO38XEc6qHThPJGlL8MnW
The gravel WC will not take place in Nice as planned.
This is yet another instance of a planned WC event being moved within the final year before the event. There have been several other in recent years. Moving the Rwanda worlds would not be unprecedented at all.
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-10-2025-0020_ES.html
The European Parliament has weighed in!
29. Pide la cancelación del Campeonato Mundial de Ciclismo en Ruta de 2025, organizado por la Unión Ciclista Internacional, en Kigali si Ruanda no cambia de rumbo;
If Rwanda does not change course, they 'call for' the World Championships in Rwanda to be canceled. This seems like the kind of thing that has no weight behind it, but also kind of does.
UCI statement: https://www.uci.org/pressrelease/uci-declaration-regarding-the-situation-in-rwanda/2SlG6bGc60cY6F3U8o9HYl
The Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI), in close collaboration with the Local Organising Committee (LOC) of the 2025 UCI Road World Championships, is closely monitoring developments in the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and their potential impact on the organisation of the UCI Road World Championships scheduled for next September in Kigali, Rwanda.
The ongoing conflict is confined to the DRC, and Rwanda remains entirely safe for tourism and business.
We hope for a swift and peaceful resolution of the situation. The UCI wishes to emphasise that sport, and cycling in particular, are powerful ambassadors for peace, friendship, and solidarity.
Moreover, following the spread of rumours on this subject, the UCI clarifies that no relocation of the 2025 UCI Road World Championships from Rwanda to Switzerland or any other location is planned at this time.
@Eliza If it's bad enough that they have to issue a statement, then there's at least....something....
This article seems to claim that the UCI has a "Plan B" ready in Switzerland with a comparable course:
https://www.quibicisport.it/2025/01/30/mondiali-in-ruanda-luci-sarebbe-gia-pronta-a-un-piano-b/
Seeing that they have even considered it gives me some confidence that the ~70-80% range is more appropriate than the ~95% range at this point in time.
Backstory:
This is intended to be the first UCI Road World Championships event to happen in Africa. It's a big deal for many reasons, including for UCI President David Lappartient.
There are some political tensions in Rwanda and also questions about the race organization being able to pull off the event. Some nations have expressed concerns over lodging and other costs.
In 2020, the UCI organized an alternate Worlds event in Italy after Switzerland could not host due to the pandemic, so moving the World Championship is not unprecedented.