This market resolves YES if any US state achieves practical independence from the United States, meeting all of the following criteria for at least one continuous year:
The state’s government formally declares independence from the United States.
The state ceases participation in US federal elections.
The state government no longer recognizes the authority of US federal courts, agencies, or law enforcement.
The state’s government collects taxes and controls its own borders without federal enforcement or interference.
The state maintains a functioning government that provides essential services, including law enforcement and a court system, independently of the US federal government.
If a state meets these criteria but is subsequently reabsorbed into the United States before the one-year threshold, whether through negotiation, collapse, or successful US military occupation, the market will resolve NO.
If the United States and its constituent states cease to exist before 2030, this market will resolve N/A.
Update 2025-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): De Facto Independence Timing
The state must be de facto independent for at least one continuous year.
This one-year period must begin no later than the end of 2029.
Update 2025-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Territorial Control Update
The seceding state is required to control the entire county containing its capital in order to satisfy the territorial control criterion.
1,000@HaydenJonesThinks I'd like @Elspeth to clearly define what exactly secession means. Declare independence? Catalonia did that in 2017. Be recognized by third parties? That is not a requirement for statehood under international law. Be recognized by the US? That's unconstitutional and even if it weren't we know what happens when a state tries to secede, civil war. UN membership? Not a chance in hell without US acquiescence (even if the Republican administration continues to follow the blueprint of Nazi Germany and withdraws from the UN, because civil war). Some form of "soft" secession? It needs to be clarified what that means.
I think any of these is unlikely, but the degree of unlikelihood depends on what exactly OP means. What exactly is the state of the world that needs to be true for any reasonable person doing a modest amount of research to agree that it resolves YES?
@BrunoParga I've added more explicit resolution criteria. The idea is that a state has to be de facto independent for at least a year starting at the end of 2029 at the latest.
@Elspeth thank you. In the context of the Southern treason, would the blockade that was imposed by the US Navy cause the item "controls its own borders" to be false?
@Elspeth I realized I have one more question - does the seceding government need to control all of its current territory? If not, how much? Rump states are somewhat common in contexts of civil war.