Update 2025-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Artemis III option:
A mission will count as Artemis III if it is officially designated as such, even if the nature of that mission changes radically from its original or current plans.
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Starliner-2: Counts when NASA officially designates a mission as "Starliner-2". If no mission is designated "Starliner-2" (e.g., it's skipped or canceled), this outcome does not occur.
New Glenn 15: Refers to the 15th flight of New Glenn (counting flights), not a specific named mission.
1,000Starliner-2 is that the second flight after last crewed demo flight, even if that is uncrewed?
or
Starliner-2 is the second operational crew rotation mission
so by this definition, it appears that If there is another uncrewed launch that would not count.
Then suppose plans change and there is another short stay crewed mission.
Is it the second crewed stay at ISS regardless of length of stay?
Is it depending on being called Starliner-2? (What if they change mission names and either there never is a Starliner-2 mission or it is uncrewed?)
Is it the second >3 month stay at ISS?
@ChristopherRandles I think the answer most consistent with my answer below about Artemis III is that it's just whatever NASA calls Starliner 2.
(The New Glenn one is a little different, since that's about the 15th flight, not a named mission.)
If Starliner is cancelled (or just Starliner-2, but the program continues and there's a Starliner 3), then Starliner-2 is not the first. (This would presumably part of the route to "None of the above".)
@traders What's the right way to count "Psyche arrives"? Should we require successful orbital insertion? Any flyby? Flyby with images and/or data?
I'd say captured by its gravity? That's how I know I've arrived somewhere when I go interplanetary, tbh. So not just flyby, otherwise taking a plane to fly over a country would be the same as visiting that country.
For "None of the above" the Starliner, Artemis, and New Glenn programs all have to be cancelled and Psyche has to miss the asteroid, right?
Hmm. My probablities of each fail:
P(Starliner) = 0.35
P(Psyche) = 0.02
P(Artemis) = 0.12
P(NewGlenn) = 0.05
P(all) = 0.35*0.02*0.12*0.05 = 0.000042
Though I'm treating them as independent. If nuclear war breaks out, they'll all move together (Psyche likely needs a trajectory adjustment to reach the asteroid).
Still, I think I could safely bet no. Not that it'd be a good investment, once opportunity costs are considered.
For "None of the above" the Starliner, Artemis, and New Glen programs all have to be cancelled and Psyche has to miss the asteroid, right?
Correct. It's there for completeness, not because it's a likely result. I'm not a fan of N/A results, and especially not on markets where we already have four options. A fifth doesn't hurt things much.
AIUI, Psyche will need a couple mid-course corrections, almost certainly including one after the Mars flyby.
I suppose there are other ways a launch could fail to happen, as well. Apollo 1 never launched, but later missions did.
Given that (AFAIK) there aren't yet numbered New Glenn missions, I don't think that makes sense for that option -- we're talking about the 15th flight, not a specific mission with the number 15 in its name.
Let me know if that interpretation seems wrong or you have suggestions for improvement.