Amazon has recently contracted for three SpaceX Falcon 9 launches for their Kuiper program. The Kuiper satellite Internet constellation competes directly with SpaceX's Starlink program, and Amazon had previously been contracting with other launch providers.
Presumably a launch failure on one of these launches would create an unusual amount of industry drama. Will there be such a failure?
Any loss of payload, or delivery to other than a nominal orbit, will be counted as a failure here. This includes pre-launch operations (such as the AMOS-6 loss).
Update 2025-09-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Scope: Only the three SpaceX Falcon 9 Kuiper launches originally contracted by Amazon that inspired this market are counted.
Timing: Applies regardless of delays; resolution is based on the outcomes of those three launches, not tied to 2025 or the market close date.
Update 2025-09-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Post-separation satellite issues don't count: If the payload is successfully separated into the nominal orbit, any subsequent Kuiper satellite/payload failures do not resolve this market Yes.
1,000@ChristopherRandles Hmm, that is awkwardly worded. I think the best approach is the three contracted launches that inspired this market, regardless of delays.
@Mqrius Good question, sorry I missed it at the time.
Once the payload is yeeted off the adapter into the correct orbit, it's on its own, for purposes of both SpaceX and this market. I'm assuming we are using a SpaceX adapter and won't have another Zuma on our hands, but I haven't checked.