A number of people, including notably Ron DeSantis, have suggested deploying US military forces in Mexico, in particular to combat Mexican drug cartels.
This includes all military operations, whether operating under explicit flags or covert, with or without the permission of the Mexican government. This will resolve on the basis of official statements by the US or Mexican govenments and credible news reports. Reports in question must be publicly available by 2026-01-31, and cover operations conducted before EOY 2025.
1,000There were US forces there earlier this year for training, but I don't think that meets the intent of an "operation".
For what it is worth, the Mexican President clearly rejected the idea in May.
I suspect there is a very real possibility of covert operations that will remain secret until after this market has resolved.
@LarsOsborne how long do you expect public reports to take? What timeframe(s) for actions and reports would make make an interesting follow-up?
@EvanDaniel Covert operations? Many years, I suspect it would long past when it would be reasonable to resolve this market.
@MalachiteEagle it lets them declare victory without actually carrying out military operations on mexican soil, which i think would be bad (unless mexico specifically requests it of their own accord)
Most of the things discussed here would count. Training alone wouldn't.