What will be true of ChatGPT's porn policy in December?
12
125Ṁ320
Dec 31
90%
Users will be permitted to make porn text
44%
The porn-policy change will be cancelled, or not implemented
19%
Users will be permitted to talk dirty with the voice mode
13%
Users will be permitted to make porn images
5%
Users will be permitted to make porn videos

Sam Altman has said ChatGPT will be allowing "erotica for verified adults" in December. What will this look like?

Addendum:

This market resolves based on what happens during December 2025:

For the permission options ("Users will be permitted to make porn text/images/videos" and "Users will be permitted to talk dirty with the voice mode"):

  • These resolve YES if the feature is available to verified adults at any point during December, even if only briefly

  • The feature does not need to remain available for the entire month

For the cancellation option ("The porn-policy change will be cancelled, or not implemented"):

  • This resolves YES if the announced erotica policy is cancelled, rolled back, or not implemented at all during December

  • This includes cases where the feature launches but is then removed during the month

Important: Multiple options can resolve YES simultaneously. For example, if text-based erotica launches on December 5th but is then cancelled on December 15th, both "Users will be permitted to make porn text" AND "The porn-policy change will be cancelled, or not implemented" would resolve YES.


What counts as "permitted":

Official features and policies count, even if they require verification steps like uploading ID

Jailbreaks, prompt injections, or workarounds that circumvent ChatGPT's policies do NOT count as permission

The existence of some content restrictions (e.g., prohibiting content involving real-world people, celebrities, or minors) does NOT disqualify an option from resolving YES, as long as other types of adult content are permitted

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules