Thanks. This does appear to be helpful.

I'm not sure why there is so much cynicism in response to the original prediction.

I understand I'm placing a wager that everyone else believes is unlikely and it does seem highly likely that this will resolve 'na' due to the communication barrier between getting @Aella to even be aware of the question and take it as genuine.

But in the spirit of prediction markets, I feel confident that if she did take me seriously, she would be pleasantly surprised. This at least provides me a place to wager against a definitive 'no' resolution.

Thanks again for the attention.

Yoink

I think this is a better setup for markets like that one:

1. People with expertise on what would happen if this is tested can leverage it by an order of magnitude.

2. People who think nothing ever happens can power that leverage by betting on an N/A resolution and be paid for it.

3. Aella gets to pick up a much greater bounty when she forces the test.