When will there first be a credible report that an AI system qualifies as ASL-3?
8
680แน5739999
1.8%
2023 Q4
3%
2024 Q1
4%
2024 Q2
4%
2024 Q3
6%
2024 Q4
6%
2025 Q1
21%
2025 Q2
27%
2025 Q3
27%
This will be evaluated according to the AI Safety Levels (ASL) v1.0 standard defined by Anthropic here. See this market for criteria for determining a system to be ASL-3 for the purposes of this market.
Unlike in that market, the date in question is the date of the first public report that contains credible evidence that a model is ASL-3, which may be later than the date that the model is trained, and earlier than the date that there is a consensus that that evidence should count for ASL-3.
Feel free to add new answer choices. Valid choices must be in the format YYYY QQ.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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