Will a single company in S&P 500 have larger market cap than all other S&P 500 companies combined before 2030? | Manifold

Will a single company in S&P 500 have larger market cap than all other S&P 500 companies combined before 2030?

23

1kṀ4383

2030

5%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

To resolve YES, it is enough that the condition holds at any moment before January 1, 2030, and after June 15, 2024.

A related market (for year 2030): https://manifold.markets/IhorKendiukhov/will-a-single-company-in-sp-500-hav-g9148wu0rb?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y

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This sounds like an early indicator of a singularity event.

In any case, I won’t lock up any mana for potentially more than five years.

bought Ṁ10 NO

This is nuts. The S&P market cap is $45 Trillion. Apple, the biggest is $3 Trillion. Apple would have to 15x with the other stocks not going up at all.....

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