Will any supercomputer reach 1 zettaFLOP before 2035?
23
1kṀ20002040
82%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Historically, it takes about 10 years for the top supercompter's computing power to increase by 3 orders of magnitude. From Wikipedia:
(The red line is the top supercomputer of the time, in gigaFLOPs. The top of the graph is 0.01 zettaflops, so another ~3 dectuplings are required.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be an announcement of a model with a training compute of over 1e30 FLOPs by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?
57% chance
Will the November 2024 top 500 Supercomputer list put us above 10 Exaflops of total computing power?
44% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^30 FLOP in China before 2035?
34% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?
66% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?
82% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2025?
77% chance
When will a US government AI run overtake private AI compute by FLOP?
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
82% chance
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?
44% chance