https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/why-gender-ideology-cant-survive
The gist of this article seems to be "Most leftist causes are supported by evidence and can be debated, but trans ideology is only as popular as it is because of aggressive censorship of anyone who disagrees. A relaxation of this censorship on Twitter will lead to vastly more people talking about it and seeing how ridiculous it is."
If Elon Musk does not buy Twitter, or does buy Twitter and the de facto content moderation policies do not become less restrictive towards criticism of the trans movement, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise, this market resolves based on my entirely subjective judgement of whether Richard's claim seemed true.
If at the beginning of 2028 it looks to me like the trans movement has lost significant ground relative to other leftist causes, this resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO. I'll consult the community before resolving, in case other people have had different experiences from me.
In order to differentiate between Twitter causing this change vs. a change that was going to happen anyway, see this companion market for the case where Twitter remains unchanged: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-richard-hanania-article-o-0b909fcda930
1,000@IsaacKing it's not just in response to developments in the US
Here's an excerpt from the latest report on British Social Attitudes. In the second sentence of the last paragraph, the authors seem to disagree with you and provide a citation.
You can download the PDF in this link.
https://natcen.ac.uk/publications/bsa-41-five-years-unprecedented-challenges
@IsaacKing while several "leftist" causes lost ground, the biggest losses appear to be immigration, "DEIA", and trans rights. Whereas "leftist" causes like opposition to free trade are sadly gaining.
For example, trans people are now barred from the military, whereas gay people are not.
@metachirality Yeah that’s true, but he still doesn’t believe in “trans ideology”. Not all trans people believe in the trans ideology. Dana International defended JK Rowling, Brianna Wu self-IDs as a biological male, Caitlyn Jenner has spoken out against biological males in women sports, etc.
By the metric used for this "has lost significant ground relative to other leftist causes" I think this will probably have a very high (80-90%+) to resolve yes, but the same metric this would probably resolve YES in 2022 even before Musk bought twitter. People were statistically becoming less and less accepting before then, and anti-trans legislation had already started around the world.
The amount of evidence backing something up just does not matter at all if it goes against peoples "common sense" or intuition. Most people do not come to their beliefs out of thoroughly looking through the evidence and coming to a conclusion that way, they believe things through intuition (or intuition + a small amount of information) rather than the full picture.
This all may have been slightly accelerated by Elon, but not because of the truthiness (or lack thereof) of trans ideology, but rather because people are fooled by examples such as even the author of the article himself is in his article. (The picture of a cisgender teacher wearing a wig and fake boobs, that the vast majority of people who saw including Richard assumed to be a trans person just because he claims to be. In reality a pervert and/or (most likely and) trying to create exactly the anti-trans headlines which he did.)
The medical evidence for trans people (specifically that HRT for at the very least certain cohorts of trans people which have been studied have a positive impact overall) will not cease to be true just because public opinion will very likely decay over time. Rather, the public opinion will probably still decay for a while because of "common sense" and anecdotes like the one in the article rather than actual evidence.
I think the fact that even Yglesias is mentioning some of this means that it will hold up.
Richard Hanania claims it is holding up more strongly than he expected: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/the-lgbt-dialectic
[...] I don’t think it’s a coincidence that we’re finally starting to see successful right-wing boycotts at the exact moment Twitter censorship policies changed.
If anything, my prediction may have been a bit too conservative. It was about trans, but in the case of Target, conservatives have bullied the company into decreasing the visibility of all Pride merchandise.
@tailcalled My hope is that by 2028, the article won't be holding up; being trans is exhausting enough already, I'd really like it not to get even worse.
@evergreenemily (Also, it's worth noting he's wrong about the social media censorship thing; even before Musk relaxed the rules on hate speech on Twitter, anti-trans legislation was gaining steam throughout the country. The rate at which trans people have been targeted by legislation has been increasing for years. All of this has been a long time coming; I was starting to realize trans people were the new conservative scapegoat by mid-2021.)
@jakgnfdaghfjkahg Well “trans ideology” goes beyond trans adults wanting to be left alone. You also have questions about giving minors blockers and surgery, women’s sports, expecting everyone to list pronouns in bio etc. One can oppose the extreme “gender ideology” without being against trans people. Look at Brianna Wu, Caitlyn Jenner, and Dana International.
@nathanwei If "trans ideology" is leaving medical decisions to parents, patients, and doctors rather than the state, sporting regulations which affect like negative 2 people to sporting organizations and not the state, and something that doesn't happen then count me all in favor
@copiumarc Think more like saying that kids should get surgery and transition even if the parents don’t want it.
@nathanwei Has this surgery without parental consent happened once in the US (also, not what you said. You said giving minors blockers and surgery, which are also 2 very different things)
@copiumarc Allowed in MA: https://www.mass.gov/doc/know-your-rights-gender-affirming-care/download#:~:text=If%20you%20are%20under%2018%2C%20you%20may%20be%20able%20to,1
Anyway, rather than argue more I'll just leave you with:
This from Bill Maher: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMBzfUj5zsg
This from Brianna Wu, her friends, and Colin Wright: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWuzkzuQapY
@nathanwei Hello, MA Resident here, actually. This is taken wildly out of context.
Please refer to MA General Laws Chapter 112, Section 12F. I am almost certain that this is referring to emancipated minors -- who can consent to medical treatment as an adult would, up to and occasionally but not always including abortion and sterilization.
You don't have to agree with the law, but this is hardly gender affirming care being given a privileged status (also, did you catch the part in these brackets?)
I have better things to do than watch a Bill Maher video where the thumbnail is "are they gonna gay us all?" But I appreciate the thought.
@copiumarc From the link;
“If you are under 18, you may be able to access gender-affirming health care without parental consent if your
doctor believes you are mature enough give informed consent to the treatment, and it is in your best interest
not to notify your parents.”
@nathanwei Yes, you posted a powerpoint summary of the law. I told you what the actual law is, and how gender-affirming care is hardly mentioned there. Heres some more law:
http://masscases.com/cases/sjc/371/371mass741.html
You dont have to agree with how my state does things, but this isn't Massachusetts being "woke" and carving out exemptions to "trans the kids," it is Massachusetts applying the law consistently.
Notice how you still haven't given me what I asked for, 1 (one) actual case of a minor getting surgery without parental consent. Because this isn't a real issue. Hey, big country, 340 million people. Gotta be at least one example you can point to, right?
EDIT: Actually, the linked market is supposed to resolve N/A if Twitter changes its de facto moderation policies. So never mind about it being the same as this market.
The way I read it, now that the situation with Twitter has settled, this question is now equivalent to "will the trans movement has lost significant ground relative to other leftist causes before 2028"—that is, it's the same as https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-richard-hanania-article-o-0b909fcda930.
